国际收支——政府如何减少经常账户赤字？

 

Expenditure switching and expenditure reducing policies 支出转换和减少支出的政策

Before we get started, it should be noted that the current government, and recent governments, in the UK do not actually care about the current account deficit. They believe that it will be financed more or less indefinitely. They are much more concerned about the control of inflation. Examiners are keen that you understand how deficits can be reduced, but the following policy measures are not at the forefront of the Chancellors mind at the moment!

These polices were relevant in the 50s and 60s, especially when the UK was part of the Bretton Wood fixed exchange rate system. They are also relevant to any country that cannot finance current account deficits over the long run as easily as the UK seems to be able to do.

在我们开始之前，应该指出，英国现任政府和最近的政府实际上并不关心经常账户赤字。他们认为，它将或多或少地被无限期地资助。他们更关心通货膨胀的控制。考官们非常希望你能理解如何减少赤字，但以下政策措施目前并不在首相们的考虑范围内！这些政策在50年后的今天是相关的。

这些政策在50年代和60年代是相关的，特别是当英国是布雷顿森林固定汇率体系的一部分时。它们也适用于任何不能像英国那样轻易为经常账户赤字提供资金的国家，因为英国似乎能够做到。

 

Expenditure switching policies 支出转换政策

These are policies that a government may use to switch consumers' expenditure away from imports and towards home produced goods. There are two main types - using import controls like tariffs and devaluing the exchange rate. Let's look at these two in turn.

这些政策是政府可以用来将消费者的支出从进口商品转向国内生产的商品。主要有两种类型--使用关税等进口管制和汇率贬值。让我们依次看一下这两种政策。

Import controls 进口控制

Of course, this policy is not as relevant as it was in the past. Nowadays, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) would not let a country get away with tariffs just because it wasn't very happy with its current account deficit.

当然，这项政策已经不像过去那样有意义了。如今，世界贸易组织（WTO）不会因为一个国家对其经常账户赤字不是很满意而让其逃脱关税。

If a country levies tariffs (a tax on imports) on various imports, then their prices will rise relative to the home produced goods and so the demand for imports should fall and switch to domestically produced goods. This will be good for domestic producers as well as helping the current account deficit to fall. The foreign firm could absorb the cost of the tariff, take a cut in profits and not raise their price, but this is not a long term solution for them. Tariffs generally cause import prices to rise.

如果一个国家对各种进口商品征收关税（进口税），那么它们的价格相对于国内生产的商品就会上升，因此对进口商品的需求应该下降，转而购买国内生产的商品。这对国内生产商有利，也有助于经常账户赤字下降。外国公司可以吸收关税的成本，削减利润，不提高价格，但这对他们来说不是一个长期的解决方案。关税通常会导致进口价格上涨。

Apart from the fact that this is difficult to implement nowadays, the resulting trade war that is likely if a policy of import controls did get past the WTO would be disastrous.

除了现在难以实施的事实之外，如果进口管制政策真的通过了世贸组织的审核，那么由此引发的贸易战将是灾难性的。

 

A devaluation of the exchange rate 汇率的贬值

Of course, in a world of floating exchange rates, a currency should automatically change in response to a current account surplus or deficit. The change should also automatically correct the balance of payments disequilibria.

当然，在一个浮动汇率的世界里，货币应该对经常项目的盈余或赤字做出自动的改变。这种变化也应该自动纠正国际收支的不平衡。

A current account deficit in the UK, for example, will mean that the demand for pounds to buy UK exports is lower than the UK consumers' demand for foreign currency to buy imports. The value of the pound will fall, making exports relatively cheap and imports relatively more expensive. UK consumers will switch their purchases from imports to home produced goods, and consumers from other countries will switch their purchases from their home produced goods to UK exports. The UK's current account deficit should reduce back to equilibrium.

例如，英国的经常账户赤字，将意味着购买英国出口产品的英镑需求低于英国消费者购买进口产品的外汇需求。英镑的价值将下降，使出口相对便宜，进口相对更贵。英国消费者将把他们的购买从进口商品转向本国生产的商品，而其他国家的消费者将把他们的购买从本国生产的商品转向英国出口商品。英国的经常账户赤字应该减少，回到平衡状态。

A very nice story, which should work in theory, but in the real world life is never that simple!

一个非常好的故事，在理论上应该是可行的，但在现实世界中，生活从来没有那么简单！"。

In the days of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system, the UK would often find itself in a deficit situation. The governments of the time tended to try all other policies to reduce the deficit. Devaluation was the last resort. It was a sign that you had failed. When a country is a member of an exchange rate system, it is the foundation stone around which the rest of government macroeconomic policy is built.

在布雷顿森林固定汇率制度的时代，英国经常会发现自己处于逆差状态。当时的政府倾向于尝试所有其他政策来减少赤字。贬值是最后的手段。这是你失败的标志。当一个国家是一个汇率体系的成员时，它是政府宏观经济政策的其余部分所围绕的基石。

And why do governments avoid devaluation at all costs, even though it makes industry more competitive? The resulting higher import prices lead to higher inflation. Since the Second World War, the inflation rate of the UK has been higher, on average, than all developed countries. It is not a coincidence that the UK has seen the value of the pound fall dramatically over the same period. Devaluation is the easy way out for exporters but is a poor long term option.

而为什么政府要不惜一切代价避免贬值，即使贬值会使产业更具竞争力？由此产生的更高的进口价格导致了更高的通货膨胀。自第二次世界大战以来，英国的通货膨胀率平均高于所有发达国家。在同一时期，英国的英镑价值急剧下降，这不是一个巧合。对于出口商来说，贬值是一条简单的出路，但从长远来看是一个糟糕的选择。

Today, the UK has a floating exchange rate. In theory (as explained above) current account deficits should automatically cause the pound to fall in value to help reduce the deficit. But the pound has been strong for the last four years regardless of the trade position of the UK.

今天，英国实行的是浮动汇率。从理论上讲（如上所述），经常账户赤字应该自动导致英镑贬值，以帮助减少赤字。但在过去的四年里，无论英国的贸易状况如何，英镑一直很强劲。

As we said earlier, currency transactions as a result of exports and imports account for less than 10% of daily turnover. The key to the value of the pound nowadays is speculation. The 'markets' think the UK economy is doing pretty well, so investors buy the pound instead of other currencies. These investors obviously don't think the current account deficits are a problem otherwise they would take fright and sell their holdings of sterling.

正如我们前面所说，由于出口和进口而产生的货币交易占每日营业额的10%以下。如今，英镑价值的关键是投机。市场 "认为英国经济发展得很好，所以投资者购买英镑而不是其他货币。这些投资者显然不认为经常账户赤字是一个问题，否则他们会感到害怕并出售他们持有的英镑。

So even if the government wanted to pursue the 'devaluation' policy option to reduce a current account deficit, nowadays, it simply doesn't have the clout in the currency markets to affect the value of the pound. Look what happened on Black Wednesday!

因此，即使政府想采用 "贬值 "政策选项来减少经常账户赤字，如今，它在货币市场上根本没有影响力来影响英镑的价值。看看在黑色星期三发生了什么？

 

Expenditure reducing policies 减少支出的政策

Any government policy designed to reduce demand in the economy and so reduce consumer spending in the economy (and on imports in particular) falls into this category. On the fiscal policy side the government could increase taxes or reduce public spending. On the monetary policy side, interest rates could be raised (although this is now the job of the MPC).

任何旨在减少经济中的需求，从而减少经济中的消费支出（尤其是进口）的政府政策都属于这一类别。在财政政策方面，政府可以增加税收或减少公共开支。在货币政策方面，可以提高利率（尽管这现在是货币政策委员会的工作）。

If consumer spending falls in an economy, then spending on all goods and services, including imports, will fall. This will reduce a current account deficit.

如果一个经济体的消费者支出下降，那么所有商品和服务的支出，包括进口，都会下降。这将减少经常账户赤字。

The big problem with this policy is that the deflation in the economy is likely to cause, at the very least, a slowdown and possibly a recession. In the 50s and 60s UK governments used to announce deflationary measures in almost immediate response to bad trade figures (a rise in interest rates, a tax on luxury goods or a clampdown on bank lending). Nowadays, governments wouldn't dare to announce excessive cuts in government spending or large rises in taxes. They may well sneakily raise taxes on less visible things (like dividends on shares bought to build a pension), but to announce an increase in income tax is considered to be electoral suicide!

这种政策的最大问题是，经济中的通货紧缩可能至少会导致经济放缓，甚至可能导致经济衰退。在50年代和60年代，英国政府曾经宣布通货紧缩措施，几乎是对糟糕的贸易数据的直接反应（提高利率、对奢侈品征税或对银行贷款进行打击）。现在，政府不敢宣布过度削减政府开支或大幅增加税收。他们很可能偷偷地对不太明显的东西（如为建立养老金而购买的股票的红利）加税，但宣布增加所得税被认为是选举中的自杀行为

Anyone can cure a current account deficit by having a recession (or cure high inflation for that matter - see the last two recessions!). This is why this 'expenditure reducing' policy of deflation was often used in conjunction with something like a devaluation. The deflation would create the spare capacity in the economy and the devaluation would increase aggregate demand again back up to the full employment level. Both policies should, at the same time, reduce the current account deficit.

任何人都可以通过经济衰退来治愈经常账户赤字（或治愈高通货膨胀--见过去两次经济衰退！）。这就是为什么这种 "减少开支 "的通货紧缩政策经常与货币贬值之类的东西一起使用。通货紧缩将创造经济中的剩余能力，而货币贬值将使总需求再次上升到充分就业水平。这两种政策应该同时减少经常账户赤字。

 

Policies to improve competitiveness 提高竞争力的政策

So, import controls are difficult to impose in today's world of free trade and the WTO. The value of the pound may well fall, but only if the currency markets allow it. Deflation is completely out of the question given the risk of recession and its political difficulties. How else can a government try to reduce a current account deficit?

因此，在今天的自由贸易和世贸组织的世界里，进口控制很难实施。英镑的价值很可能会下降，但前提是货币市场允许。考虑到经济衰退的风险及其政治困难，通货紧缩是完全不可能的。一个政府还能如何尝试减少经常账户赤字？

For most manufacturing firms, it seems the only way to sell more goods abroad and to persuade UK consumers to buy more home produced goods rather than imports is to become more competitive, particularly in terms of 'non-price' factors. In terms of the most worrying 'price' factor, there is not much that they can do about the strong pound.

对于大多数制造业公司来说，似乎只有提高竞争力，特别是在 "非价格 "因素方面，才能在国外销售更多的商品，并说服英国消费者购买更多本国生产的商品而不是进口商品。就最令人担忧的'价格'因素而言，他们对强势英镑并没有多少办法。

Governments can help in this field by providing tax relief for capital investment and for research and development. They can provide training to improve the skills of the workforce and invest money into education generally so that the quality of all school leavers improves.

政府可以通过为资本投资和研究与开发提供税收减免来帮助这一领域。他们可以提供培训以提高劳动力的技能，并将资金普遍投入到教育中，以提高所有离校生的质量。

 

The J-curve and the Marshall Lerner condition J型曲线和马歇尔-勒纳条件

The success or otherwise of a devaluation in terms of reducing a current account deficit depends on the Marshall Lerner condition. This condition said that, for a devaluation to be successful in terms of a reduced current account deficit, the sum of the elasticity of demand for UK exports and the elasticity of demand in the UK for imports must be greater than one.

贬值在减少经常项目赤字方面的成功与否，取决于马歇尔-勒纳条件。这个条件是说，要使贬值在减少经常项目赤字方面取得成功，英国出口的需求弹性和英国进口的需求弹性之和必须大于1。

The J-curve simply shows that, following a devaluation, a country's current account deficit may actually increase in the short run before in falls and disappears.

J型曲线简单地表明，在贬值之后，一个国家的经常账户赤字在短期内可能会增加，然后再下降和消失。